Looking Ahead: Predicting 2027's Top Cyber Risks
Cybersecurity predictions are easy to sensationalise. The more useful approach is to look at what attackers are already doing, identify the forces making those attacks faster or more effective, and ask what businesses should prepare for next. That is how we have approached this 2027 outlook.
The risks below are forecasts, not certainties, but they are grounded in recent evidence from the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA), the 2026 Verizon Data Breach Investigations Report (DBIR), the European Commission and the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).
Our central prediction is simple: 2027 will not be defined by one completely new cyber threat. Instead, familiar attacks will become faster, more convincing and harder to contain as AI, cloud services, connected supply chains and geopolitical tensions converge.
The cyber risks most likely to shape 2027
1. AI-assisted scams will become routine, personalised and multichannel
AI is unlikely to replace cybercriminals in 2027. It will make many of their existing tactics cheaper and easier to scale. Attackers can already use generative AI to write convincing messages, research targets, imitate a company's tone of voice and adapt a scam for different languages.
The next step is likely to be more coordinated social engineering. A target might receive a believable email, followed by a text message and then a voice call that appears to come from a colleague, supplier or senior manager. Deepfake audio and video may strengthen high-value fraud attempts, but simple, well-timed impersonation will remain effective too.
The evidence already points in this direction. The ENISA Threat Landscape 2025 found that phishing accounted for approximately 60% of the initial infection vectors it identified. Verizon's 2026 DBIR also reports that generative AI is strengthening a growing range of attack techniques and that mobile users are especially susceptible to malicious texts and calls.
What businesses should do: Create a second-channel verification process for payments, password resets and sensitive data requests. Staff should confirm unusual requests using a known phone number or an approved internal channel, not the contact details supplied in the message itself.
2. Identity will become the main security perimeter
As companies rely on cloud platforms, remote access and software-as-a-service tools, attackers do not always need to break through a network firewall. A valid login, stolen browser session or overprivileged account may give them everything they need.
In 2027, we expect more attacks aimed at the complete identity chain: passwords, session cookies, recovery methods, help desks, OAuth permissions, API keys and service accounts. Conventional multifactor authentication will still be valuable, but criminals will continue looking for ways around it through phishing proxies, stolen sessions and approval fatigue.
What businesses should do: Use phishing-resistant authentication such as passkeys or security keys wherever possible. Remove unused accounts, review administrator access, shorten risky session lifetimes and make account recovery at least as secure as account login.
3. Vulnerability exploitation will compete with stolen credentials as the fastest way in
Phishing remains a major danger, but attackers are increasingly scanning the internet for exposed and unpatched systems. The 2026 DBIR reports that 31% of breaches began with the exploitation of a software vulnerability, making it the leading initial access route in its dataset.
By 2027, automated reconnaissance and AI-assisted coding could reduce the time between public disclosure of a vulnerability and widespread attempts to exploit it. Internet-facing services such as VPN appliances, firewalls, content management systems, control panels and forgotten test environments will be particularly attractive because compromising one system can provide access to many others.
What businesses should do: Maintain an accurate inventory of public-facing assets, install security updates promptly and replace unsupported software. Remove systems that no longer need to be online rather than relying on the hope that nobody will find them.
4. Ransomware will keep evolving into data theft and business disruption
Ransomware is not disappearing. Verizon says it was present in 48% of the breaches assessed in its 2026 report, even as payments declined. ENISA similarly describes ransomware as the most impactful cybercrime threat in the EU.
That combination gives us a strong clue about 2027. If fewer victims pay simply to recover encrypted files, attackers will put more pressure on them in other ways: stealing data, threatening publication, contacting customers, targeting backups or interrupting critical operations. Some incidents may involve extortion without encryption at all.
What businesses should do: Keep isolated, versioned backups and test restoration regularly. Limit access to sensitive information, monitor unusual downloads and prepare an incident-response plan covering legal, operational and customer-communication decisions. A backup helps recovery, but it does not undo a data breach.
5. Suppliers and digital dependencies will multiply the impact of a single breach
Most businesses depend on external hosting, software, plugins, payment providers, managed services and open-source components. That creates efficiency, but also concentration risk: one compromised provider or widely used component can expose many organisations at once.
We expect attackers in 2027 to keep targeting trusted access and shared infrastructure rather than attacking every final victim separately. ENISA notes that digital infrastructure and service providers remain high-value targets because cyber dependencies can be used as launchpads for follow-up attacks.
This is also becoming a compliance issue. Under the EU Cyber Resilience Act, reporting obligations began in September 2026, while the main obligations for products with digital elements apply from 11 December 2027.
What businesses should do: Identify the suppliers that could interrupt your most important services. Ask how they manage vulnerabilities, backups, access and incident notification. Keep an inventory of software dependencies and define a fallback plan for business-critical providers.
6. AI agents and machine identities will create a new class of access risk
Businesses are beginning to give AI assistants access to email, documents, customer records, code repositories and other tools. By 2027, more of these systems may be able to take actions rather than simply produce text.
This creates a new security problem: an AI agent can be manipulated, granted excessive permissions or connected to an unsafe data source. A malicious instruction hidden in a document or webpage could influence an agent's behaviour, while leaked tokens could expose every system the agent is authorised to use.
This forecast does not require a fully autonomous “AI hacker”. The more immediate risk is ordinary access-control failure applied to software that can act quickly across several services.
What businesses should do: Treat each AI agent like a new employee or service account. Give it only the permissions it needs, separate testing from production, log its actions and require human approval for payments, publishing, deletion and changes to sensitive systems.
7. Geopolitical cyber activity will continue spilling into everyday business
Cyberespionage and disruptive attacks are no longer concerns only for governments or defence contractors. Organisations in transport, telecommunications, energy, finance and digital services can become direct targets—or collateral damage—during periods of political tension.
ENISA's latest threat landscape records persistent state-aligned operations against EU organisations and large volumes of ideologically motivated distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) activity. Many DDoS incidents cause limited disruption, but they can still take websites and customer services offline, create noise around another intrusion or damage trust at a sensitive moment.
What businesses should do: Include DDoS, supplier outages and unavailable communications in continuity planning. Protect domain and DNS accounts with strong authentication, keep registrar contact details current and establish an alternative way to communicate with customers if your main website is unavailable.
8. Post-quantum preparation will become an inventory challenge—not a 2027 apocalypse
Quantum computing is often presented as an imminent event that will suddenly break all encryption. That is not a responsible prediction for 2027. The more credible near-term risk is poor preparation for a long, complicated migration.
NIST has already standardised its first post-quantum cryptographic algorithms and published transition guidance for moving away from quantum-vulnerable standards. Organisations handling information that must remain confidential for many years also need to consider “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks, in which encrypted data is stolen today in the hope of decrypting it in the future.
What businesses should do: Start with cryptographic discovery. Identify where encryption and digital signatures are used, which vendors control them and how long the protected data must remain confidential. Do not rush into untested products or replace proven encryption without expert guidance.
2027 cyber-risk forecast at a glance
Risk | Why it matters in 2027 | First practical step |
|---|---|---|
AI-assisted social engineering | More convincing scams across email, text, voice and video | Verify sensitive requests through a second channel |
Identity and session theft | Cloud access makes a valid identity more valuable than a breached device | Adopt passkeys or security keys and reduce privileges |
Vulnerability exploitation | Attackers can find and target exposed systems faster | Inventory internet-facing assets and patch quickly |
Ransomware and extortion | Data theft and disruption increase pressure even without encryption | Test isolated backups and an incident-response plan |
Supply-chain compromise | One trusted provider can provide access to many customers | Map critical suppliers and software dependencies |
AI-agent abuse | Automated tools may hold broad permissions across business systems | Restrict access and require approval for high-impact actions |
Geopolitical disruption | DDoS, espionage and supplier outages can affect ordinary businesses | Prepare continuity plans for website and service outages |
Post-quantum transition | Long migration timelines make delayed discovery expensive | Create an inventory of cryptography and long-lived sensitive data |
What businesses should do before 2027
You do not need to predict every attack. You need controls that continue to work when the attacker, technology or entry point changes. Before 2027, prioritise the following:
- Protect identities: Use unique passwords, a password manager and phishing-resistant multifactor authentication wherever available.
- Secure email: Configure SPF, DKIM and DMARC, and establish a clear process for verifying payment or account-change requests.
- Control domain and DNS access: Protect registrar accounts, use role-based access where possible and enable DNSSEC for supported domains.
- Patch what is exposed: Prioritise internet-facing software, plugins, VPNs, firewalls and management interfaces.
- Test recovery: Keep protected backups and prove that they can restore the systems the business actually depends on.
- Reduce unnecessary access: Review administrator rights, service accounts, API keys and third-party integrations.
- Set rules for AI tools: Decide which data employees and agents may use, and which actions always require human approval.
- Practise the response: Run a tabletop exercise covering a compromised account, unavailable website, stolen data and supplier outage.
What probably will not happen in 2027
Good forecasting also means resisting hype. AI is unlikely to make basic security irrelevant. Quantum computers are unlikely to break every encrypted service overnight. Ransomware will not vanish simply because more victims refuse to pay.
The more realistic danger is that attackers will combine proven techniques more efficiently than businesses improve their defences. That makes security fundamentals—asset visibility, controlled access, updates, backups and rehearsed incident response—more important, not less.
Final thoughts: prepare for acceleration, not science fiction
The defining cyber risk of 2027 may be speed. Attackers will be able to research targets, exploit exposed systems, generate convincing messages and move through connected services faster. Meanwhile, regulatory deadlines and customer expectations will leave businesses less room for an improvised response.
The strongest preparation is not a single futuristic tool. It is a well-maintained digital foundation: secure identities, updated systems, protected domains and DNS, reliable backups, carefully managed suppliers and a team that knows what to do when something goes wrong.
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Methodology and sources
These predictions are editorial assessments based on observed attack patterns, current technology adoption and confirmed regulatory timelines. They should be treated as scenarios for planning rather than guarantees about individual incidents.
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